International Trade Outlook 2022
With the arrival of the new year, companies looking for opportunities in international trade in 2022 are starting to observe the market and research in order to discover the prospects and projections for this sector.
According to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), the forecast for international trade growth in 2022 is 4%, i.e. below pre-pandemic levels. It is worth noting that in 2021 the volume of international trade had an expansion of 8%, after the 5.3% drop in the previous year.
Furthermore, recently the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development stated that even with global trade growing and stabilizing during the second half of 2021, the outlook for international trade in 2022 is uncertain. Read on and learn more!
International Trade 2022: Favorable Scenario x Uncertainties
According to the Monthly Trade Survey, from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in the month of August there was a drop of -3.1% in retail sales volume. It was identified that, although the sector is presenting a higher transacted quantity than before the pandemic, this number concerns products considered essential, such as market items, pharmacies and medicines, as well as those associated with changes in consumer behavior during the lockdown (furniture and appliances).
Other segments that are gradually improving are automobile sales, events, and tourism, with a tendency for the clothing, footwear, and accessories sectors to perform better. However, one fact has lit a warning sign regarding the retail sector's capacity to recover next year: the reduction in sales in the month of August 2021 after four positive months for retail in general.
Right now we are experiencing the worst moment for domestic inflation, where price shocks should begin to ease or dissipate only early next year, bringing IPCA inflation to end 2022 below 6%.
International trade will grow 4% in 2022
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the forecast for international trade growth in 2022 is 4%, still below pre-pandemic levels. The institution also estimates that the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will advance 3.8% next year. The projections were recently released by the WTO itself.
Also based on the information released by the Organization, the short-term outlook is relatively positive. However, the entity believes that the scenario will be marked by disparities, amid the uneven pace of vaccination against coronavirus between more and less developed countries
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said, "The strong recovery in global trade since the middle of last year has helped soften the blow of the pandemic for people, businesses and economies. She added that keeping international markets open will be essential for economies to recover from this crisis, and rapid, global, equitable distribution of vaccines is necessary for the strong and sustained recovery that everyone needs.
Will International Trade 2022 have the same challenges as 2021?
Should the current international trade scenario be reflected in 2022? That is the question everyone is asking at the moment. The global economic situation, the restrictions caused by Covid-19, the lack of equipment, bottlenecks, and high demand locations, according to industry experts, are still far from over.
Still talking about the current moment, we can say that 2021 was a challenging year of economic recovery for international trade, for obvious reasons. We know that 2020 caused economies to shut down for a large part of the year, making 2021 a race to meet the gradual increase in demand and the reduction in supply capacity of the world's logistics.
However, a new year is approaching, and with it new planning, especially for those who work directly in this area and need to deal with the uncertainties and rapid changes caused by numerous factors.
According to the Foreign Trade Association for Brazil, Brazilian exports are expected to fall by 4.7% in the year 2022 compared to 2021, while imports may grow by about four and a half percent. Thus, it is estimated that the increase in imports and fall in exports will cause a negative contribution of international trade in the calculation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country in 2022.
The prices of oil and iron ore, for example, are already falling, and the expectation for next year is that they will have a reduction of at least eighteen and a half percent. Together, soy, oil and iron ore should account for more than 30% of total exports, which means a retraction, if compared to what is estimated for 2021.
Soy, inclusive, should be the leading export product, with approximately US$ 45 billion, which will represent a new record. Imports, on the other hand, will continue to grow due to the lack of components, containers and ships, which will force companies to buy abroad.
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